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Wonk Watch: The New America Foundation has just released a series of papers on the threat, capabilities, and allies of al-Qaeda central that provide context for two different but simultaneously accurate pictures of the group: one, wounded and hunted, the other, resilient and determined (NAF). 

Kabul shaken

After more than a month of calm and on the morning of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad, several Taliban suicide bombers in cars and on foot targeted two buildings in the Afghan capital often used by foreign visitors, killing as many as 18 people including an Italian, a Frenchman, ten Indians, and a Pakistani (AJE, AP, AFP, BBC, Pajhwok, CNN, Reuters, Wash Post, NYT). According to witnesses, the bombers also used guns and grenades, and the attacks left eight Afghans including three police officers dead and some 40 wounded, and suggest that Taliban across the country have not been cowed by the ongoing coalition offensive in Marjah, in the southern Afghan province of Helmand.
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Operation Moshtarak in Marjah, nearly two weeks old, continues and the AP adds its analysis to those finding that the Afghan National Army is not ready to "go it alone" (AP). Two NATO soldiers died in Afghanistan earlier today, one involved in the Marjah operations, and Afghans and coalition troops are engaged in active bargaining over compensation for damaged property and injuries from Moshtarak (AFP, AP). Pajhwok reports that 35 Afghan civilians have been killed in the operation, which the Journal assesses has reached a "turning point" and the Times says has "emerged from the worst of the fighting" (Pajhwok, WSJ, NYT).

Watching the Afghan Taliban...

Josha Partlow has today's must-read about the complexities of the plans for reintegrating Taliban militants in Afghanistan, correctly noting that "the diverse strands of the insurgency make it difficult to generalize about the motives of fighters across the country" (Wash Post). And Anand Gopal analyzes whether the Afghan Taliban can recover from recent blows to its leadership, writing, "While the recent crackdown may put pressure on the Taliban, the movement has survived the loss of senior leaders before" (CSM).

In spite of recent reports, Lahore's High Court has ruled that Mullah Baradar, the captured Afghan Taliban's second-in-command, will not be extradited to Afghanistan or the United States, nor will four other recently detained Taliban leaders (BBC, Dawn, NYT). The court also ruled that none but Pakistani security forces and intelligence officials should have access to the men.

...and the Pakistani Taliban

Wednesday's suspected U.S. drone strike in North Waziristan reportedly killed a commander in the 'Punjabi Taliban' who was wanted in connection with the deadly 2006 bombing on the U.S. consulate in Karachi (AP, The News, AFP, Dawn). Muhammad Qari Zafar, a former member of the sectarian terrorist outfit Lashkar-i-Jangvi, had allied himself with the Pakistani Taliban sometime before military operations in South Waziristan began in October of last year. For regularly updated research on drone strikes in Pakistan, visit New America's newly-launched drones database, which includes a map of reported strikes in Pakistan since 2004 (NAF).

And Dawn reports that the nephew of Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah has been arrested in Nowshera in the NWFP (Dawn). Sabrina Tavernise has a story about Sufism, a mystical form of Islam, in Lahore and throughout Pakistan (NYT).

The rule of law

A few days after the Afghan-American admitted terrorist Najibullah Zazi pleaded guilty, two of his high school classmates also accused of terrorism-related activities were indicted and pleaded not guilty in the plot to bomb New York City subways (AP). Zarein Ahmedzay and Adis Medunjanin both allegedly traveled to Pakistan with Zazi in 2008 to join the Taliban, according to authorities, who also say the plot was "directed by al-Qaeda leadership." For more on the legal 'war on terror,' subscribe to a new weekly brief from Foreign Policy and New America (LWOT).

Some prisoners at a new $60 million facility at Bagram Air Base north of Kabul are unexpectedly cheerful, reports McClatchy, and the new space is a "vast improvement" over older conditions according to human rights groups (McClatchy). And Pakistan will reportedly hand over 42 Taliban prisoners in its custody to Afghan authorities sometime soon (Pajhwok).

Congratulations!

A Pakistani woman gave birth to a baby while riding in a rickshaw stuck in traffic yesterday in Quetta (Aaj). The roads were jammed because Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, who ordered an investigation, was visiting the Baluchistan capital, and mom and baby are doing well (Dawn/Reuters, Geo).

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Afghanistan has been at war for much of the past 32 years -- hence the proliferation of warlords. Everyone from international pundits to local governors uses the term to discredit certain political factions or insult the "bad guys." Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, for example, is often described as a "warlord," but bad armed behavior does not a warlord make.

In reality, the term has a specific and more useful meaning in the historical literature. It describes a charismatic military leader who, because of the weakness or absence of a state, ends up playing a political role, though he lacks political legitimacy. In Afghanistan, the two characters who best fit this definition are Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and Mohammed Ismail Khan. The former dominated northern Afghanistan between 1992 and 1997, re-emerging as a regional power after the collapse of the Taliban regime in 2001. The latter ran much of western Afghanistan from 1992 until 1995, similarly returning to prominence after the 2001 invasion.

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In the Hobbesian world of war-torn Afghanistan, warlords are "service providers" to a much larger "military class" of petty local military commanders. Those local commanders network to secure supplies, political representation, and -- most importantly -- military backup. Warlords often command the networks, especially in western and northern Afghanistan. The most powerful, influential, and charismatic leaders (such as Dostum and Ismail Khan) even develop "networks of networks," becoming national players and formulating alliances with political actors struggling for control in Kabul.

Dostum and Ismail Khan differed from each other in their approach to power. The former ran a decentralized operation, leaving much space to his regional and provincial-level subordinates. Organizations accusing him of human rights abuses often forget that he made few orders, or even authorizations, from the top; it is often difficult, if not impossible, to determine which commanders made which decisions. Indeed, this was a key strength and key weakness of his governing system. Unable to mobilize and direct his considerable military resources at will, Dostum's performance in the civil wars of the 1990s was mediocre at best. Faced with a weaker but more determined adversary in the Taliban, his forces were eventually overwhelmed. Yet, the decentralization of his military also provided resilience. The "military class," Dostum's key constituency, saw him as a patron who did not demand too much from them.

In contrast, Ismail Khan was a centralizer and micromanager who attempted to enforce strict discipline on his subordinates and organize them into a state-like system. Instead of appeasing and negotiating, he used disciplined units under his direct control to conscript military commanders into a regimented force, modeled after an early-modern state. (He called this system the Emirate.) From 1992 on, he was more able than Dostum to direct the forces under his control, crushing revolts against his rule in 1992 and 1993, for instance. But Dostum was popular -- and Ismail Khan was not. Ultimately, the latter's own constituency of petty military leaders rejected him. They resented their lack of autonomy, and the Emirate collapsed in 1995 after a major battlefield defeat.

Still, Dostum and Ismail Khan had much in common as well. Both devoted considerable energy to managing the unruly mass of small-time warlords and petty military leaders, using a mix of persuasion and coercion. In this sense, like the warlords of the early Middle Ages in Europe, who evolved into kings and feudal lords, the warlords of Afghanistan were part of a process of state formation from the grassroots. By gradually claiming some control over a fragmented and localized military class, they monopolized control over violence: a key process of early state formation.

The skills required to control a fragmented military class like Afghanistan's are always in short supply. Despite many opportunities and attempts to replace figures like Dostum and Ismail Khan, no viable alternative emerged during the nearly 20 years of their presence on Afghanistan's political scene. That is in part because their tasks were not for the fainthearted. Even a regular, disciplined army trained by a foreign mission (like the Afghan National Army today) would find it difficult to crush the thousands of small armed groups loyal to petty military commanders spread around Afghanistan. Of course, there was no such army to rely on in 2002. Even in 2004, when Afghan President Hamid Karzai started increasing the pressure on the warlords, trying to sever them from their constituencies, the Afghan National Army did little and was soon recommitted primarily to fighting the growing Taliban insurgency in the south.

Although Karzai was effective in reducing the power and influence of both Dostum and Ismail Khan, it did little good to help state formation in Afghanistan. Unable to control the myriad petty local commanders or offer them alternative employment, the renascent Afghan state set itself up for trouble. By 2007, petty commanders, left without a political patron and without a charismatic (and ruthless) figure to restrain them, were starting to look for alternatives. Even in western and northern Afghanistan, once hotbeds of resistance against the Taliban, a number started negotiating with the re-emergent movement of Mullah Omar. By 2008, some had fully allied with the Taliban as it expanded beyond its traditional Pashtun base.

It is true that warlords are not good state-building material because their power is based largely on coercion and their political legitimacy is weak. However, there is a common misunderstanding about Afghanistan: What has been going on since 2001 is not yet state-building anyway, just tentative state formation. Ultimately, marginalizing characters such as Dostum and Ismail Khan does not remove the need for dealing with the increasingly politically fluid military class.

Tune in today at 9:30am for the livestream of a special New America Foundation and Foreign Policy magazine conference on al-Qaeda Central, its allies, capabilities, and messages.

A new leaf?

Afghan and Pakistani officials said yesterday that when Islamabad receives a formal request from Kabul, it will transfer the recently captured Afghan Taliban number two leader Mullah Baradar into Afghan custody, though he could be tried first in Pakistan (WSJ, AFP, Reuters, AP, FT, Dawn, Pajhwok). Dawn, a leading Pakistani daily, reports that FBI Director Robert Mueller requested that Pakistan hand over Baradar to U.S. custody, but was turned down (Dawn).
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Anand Gopal writes that half of the Afghan Taliban's senior leadership -- seven of the 15 members of the Quetta shura --  has been arrested by Pakistani authorities in recent days, a higher figure than the three leaders previously reported captured (CSM). These arrests suggest, as the Times reports this morning, that the CIA and Pakistan's intelligence agency -- Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI -- are cooperating more closely, albeit warily (NYT). Mark Mazzetti and Jane Perlez write that the CIA has carried out "dozens" of joint raids with the ISI over the past year, based in Pakistani cities like Quetta and Peshawar.

And a top Pakistani general told the AP that the blast which killed three U.S. soldiers in northwest Pakistan earlier this month did not target them (AP). Rather, Maj. Gen. Tariq Khan said, the militants had aimed for the "most prominent" vehicle in the convoy, believing a local paramilitary commander would be inside.

Regional rivalries

Foreign secretaries from Pakistan and India met earlier today in a four-hour meeting in New Delhi for the first time since the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, and were expected to discuss terrorism, Kashmir, and a variety of other issues (NYT, CNN, AJE, ToI, BBC, Dawn, AP, Reuters, The News). While few observers predict a substantive breakthrough, today's meeting could clear the way for the resumption of broader dialogue and the rivals promised to "keep in touch," though no future talks have been announced.

The Journal reports that the U.S. is "sharply expanding American weapons transfers" to both Pakistan and India, which have both been annoyed when the U.S. has made big sales or transfers to the other (WSJ). Pakistan purchases most of its U.S. weapons with U.S. grants, while India, 70 percent of whose military hardware in use comes from Russia, buys U.S. arms with its own funding.

Afghan flag flies over Marjah

For the second time, yesterday Afghan authorities raised the Afghan flag over Marjah in front of a ceremony attended by around 700 residents and claimed control of the town that is the site of a recent coalition military offensive that has left 13 NATO troops, three Afghan soldiers, and at least 28 Afghan civilians dead (AJE, AP, Fox). The Afghan Army had previously raised the flag nearby, but that was apparently to indicate control over one neighborhood of Marjah; some 100 Taliban fighters are said to have regrouped in a 28-square-mile area of the town, which coalition forces are working to secure.

Unlike some of its allies, the U.S. yesterday appeared to express cautious support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai's recent power grab over the country's electoral watchdog (AFP). And the London Times investigated an incident from December in which ten young Afghans were killed in Narang, a town in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar, and determines that the night raid was "based on faulty intelligence and should never have been authorized" (Times).

The Post has a must-read detailed investigation into cash flows in and out of Afghanistan, finding that Afghan passengers took more than $180 million in declared cash to Dubai during a two-month period last summer; if that rate held for the rest of the year, cash leaving Afghanistan would far outstrip the country's $875 million annual revenue (Wash Post). The undeclared cash leaving the country, which includes U.S. dollars, euros, and oddly Saudi riyals, is almost certainly far more than that.

More than fashion

The LA Times explores the use in Pakistan of the dupatta, the up to 8-foot-long scarves often worn by Pakistani women draped over the arms, shoulders, and head (LAT). The dupatta is traditionally paired with the shalwar kameez, a two-piece tunic and pants combination.

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The U.S. intelligence community has long viewed Pakistan's military with suspicion, due to its ties to the Afghan Taliban. Following the arrest of Mullah Baradar, the Taliban's second in command, that may finally change.

The U.S. intelligence community has long viewed Pakistan's military with suspicion, due to its ties to the Afghan Taliban. Following the arrest of Mullah Baradar, the Taliban's second in command, that may finally change.

"Eyes in the sky"

Pakistani media reports on a series of security incidents across the country yesterday: in the southern port city of Karachi, a Taliban commander was arrested with half-completed suicide vests, jihadist literature, arms, and ammunition; a woman and her three children were killed in Peshawar by rocket fire; four suspected militants died when their explosives detonated prematurely in Kurram agency; and authorities captured six fighters in Dara Adam Khel and bulldozed Pakistani Taliban hideouts there (The News, The News/BBC, Dawn, Dawn). The Wall Street Journal analyzes whether the recent captures of high-level Afghan Taliban commanders could signal a shift in Pakistan's security stance (WSJ). A Pakistani official commented, "America has an advantage in technical intelligence: eyes in the sky. We have people on ground. If you can match those in a timely manner, you get better results."
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A reported U.S. drone strike in North Waziristan killed at least three militants suspected of involvement with the Haqqani insurgent network earlier today, and two bodies were found near Mir Ali in North Waziristan with Taliban notes accusing them of acting as spies for the United States (AP, BBC, Geo, AFP, Reuters, Dawn, CNN, Dawn). And FBI director Robert Mueller is the latest high-level U.S. official to visit Pakistan in recent weeks; he is reportedly in Islamabad for meetings today (Geo, Daily Times).

Afghan insurgent leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has apparently offered his version of a peace deal with the Afghan government (Geo). The Hezb-i-Islami group is the subject of a fascinating must-watch Frontline documentary that aired in the U.S. last night, available online from PBS (PBS).

And the AP checks in on the status of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the alleged front organization for Lashkar-e-Taiba, the militant group responsible for the November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, and finds it "up and running again" (AP). India reportedly wants terrorism high on the agenda in the first diplomatic talks, starting tomorrow at the foreign secretary level, between the two countries since Mumbai (NYT, AFP).

Afghan official gunned down

Taliban gunmen shot and killed a local provincial official in Kandahar earlier today, as an Afghan human rights body announced that 28 civilians have been killed so far in the coalition offensive in neighboring Helmand province (BBC, AP, Pajhwok). The new mayor of Marjah, Haji Abdul Zahir, spent his first night in the town last night in a simple tent at a Marine outpost, and estimated that 70 percent of the town is secure enough for him to visit (WSJ). Skilled Taliban snipers continue to target coalition troops and roadside bombs remain a constant threat, however, and Afghan tribal leaders and their followers remain skeptical (Times, AP, AP, AP).

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has reportedly issued a new directive restricting the use of nighttime raids in the country, which some analysts assess are "lethal to public opinion" (CNN, FP). And the U.S.'s Strategic Command has ordered a "satellite surge" designed to give troops in Afghanistan better access to GPS coverage in the battle zone, while the Post considers the implications of 1,000 U.S. fatalities in the Afghan war (NYT, Wash Post).

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's move yesterday to take control of the country's electoral monitoring body has sparked harsh criticism from political opposition and some international officials, though not the United States (Reuters, NYT, FT). U.S. Sen. Carl Levin is expected to unleash a withering critique this morning of contractors working in Afghanistan for the firm formerly known as Blackwater, accusing them of operating without "sufficient oversight or supervision" in relation to an incident that led to the shooting deaths of two Afghan civilians in May 2009 (CNN, AP, Pajhwok, SASC).

An Olympic feat

Pakistan's only winter Olympian came in 79th out a field of 103 skiers in the giant slalom race in Vancouver yesterday (Dawn). Muhammad Abbas, who learned to ski by strapping wooden planks to his feet with nylon rope, finished 42 seconds behind the winner.

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This is a topic I plan to address in a series of posts over the next few weeks. But first I want to thank every correspondent who took the time to write in response to last week’s “Help!” post. As I type this, we’ve had 69 Comments. This is absolutely amazing, and I thank everybody. Particularly for the detail of the responses. It really helps me. I’m traveling this week and the next so I won’t be able to send out signed “War of Arts” yet in gratitude, but I will as soon as I can. Gracias, everybody, for the overwhelming and very helpful response!

Now to Depth of Work—and a confession. I’m not sure if it’s evident from my posts over the last couple of months, but I’ve been going through a crisis in my own work (see “Self-Doubt” and “Wrestling an Alligator,” among others.) Much of it has to do with depth of work, or rather the lack of it.

I’ve been shallow. Resistance has beaten me much too often. The culprit, oddly enough, has been success—and the urge that public recognition engenders to “expand.” If you glance around at this blog page, you’ll see that I have plunged over the last year into a cause that is partly political, partly military, and largely involves the attempt to influence events in the real world through direct personal participation. I love this cause, it’s a passion of mine; it has brought me great new friends (and we, by our efforts together, may even have nudged the pea a few centimeters down the trail.) But this type of enterprise is not healthy for a writer. I didn’t know that six months ago, or even two months ago.

Depth of work. This is where satisfaction comes from for people like me and you. This is the fun of the game; this is what it’s all about. This is why we all got into this business.

What is depth of work? Have you ever had one of those days at the gym where you go around yakking to your buddies, schmoozing and chilling. That is NOT depth of work. Have you ever tweeted, or checked your Facebook page, or succumbed to serial e-mailing? That ain’t depth of work either.

Jon Naber won four gold medals in swimming at the ’76 Olympics, all in world record times. I saw an interview with him right afterward. The reporter asked a very insightful question about a sport where thousandths of a second separate gold from everybody else: “What’s the difference between a good swimmer and a great one?” John Naber answered as follows: “In competition, almost immediately after you hit the water, you enter the Pain Zone. It hurts–and it gets worse every meter you go. The great swimmers,” John Naber said, “are the ones who can go deeper into the Pain Zone and stay there longer.”

That’s depth of work. In my experience, depth of work consists of two components. The first is recklessness; the second is discipline. Dionysian; Apollonian. Passion;reason.

Recklessness means putting out of your mind all thoughts or fears of the opinions of others—and even the opinion of yourself. It means jumping off the cliff. In acting, it means uncorking a fearless performance, where you risk looking like an absolute fool in an effort to get to the deepest, truest levels of the character. In writing, it means letting it rip on the page, trusting the Muse and following your instincts. It means spewing sometimes. Free-associating. Going for it.

Then comes the hard part: appending reason. Discriminatory intelligence. Now we have to ask the really hard questions. What is this stuff all about? What am I trying to do? What is the deepest truth underlying this?

I read a story once about Barbra Streisand at a recording session. She did take after take of the same song. The reporter telling the story said he couldn’t tell the difference between Take One and Take Two, or even Take One and Take Nine. But, he said, he could tell the difference between Take One and Take Sixteen. Obvious Ms. Streisand could tell. That too is depth of work.

What we’re talking about here is head-banging, non-glamorous, nut-busting labor. It’s lonely. It hurts. It drives everybody else crazy. It requires tremendous professionalism and courage (or, perhaps more accurately, stubbornness and mulishness) and control of our emotions and our fears.

The analogy of the gym is a good one, I think. Because one thing the gym teaches is that “you have to train to be able to train.” Meaning you can’t go in, Day One, and start bench-pressing the same weight Reggie Bush benches. You have to build a base of strength slowly, over time, being careful not to set yourself back by injury, impatience or boredom.

In other words, depth of work requires—in addition to recklessness and reason– commitment over time.

I’m reading a really interesting book right now by Michael Bungay Stanier called Do More Great Work. Mr. Stanier starts by citing Milton Glazer’s axiom that we all do three kinds of work: bad work, good work and great work. One of the “map exercises” in the book (a very interesting graphic technique that helps you understand what you really think or really want) asks you how much great work you’re doing. It’s a pie chart. I thought about myself. I’m doing about 0.01 great work right now. It’s such a tiny sliver of the pie, I can’t even draw it.

Another exercise in the book asks you to recall a time when you were doing great work. Here’s one for me: I had taken a month, by myself, and was renting a cottage on a farm in the highlands of Scotland. I was writing Tides of War then, which was a really difficult book about a ridiculously obscure subject. I loved it. I would work in my freezing little room in the cottage the morning, then play golf in the afternoon. It was great. I got in some really intense, long work sessions (because the days are so long in Scotland, you can play golf in the summertime till nine at night.)

Those mornings were depth of work. I had momentum, I had commitment over time; I was busting my butt and really going deep, into a subject that I loved and that I didn’t care whether anybody else was interested in or not.

Those days seem distant to me now. I’m shallow these days; my focus is scattered. I’m schmoozing at the gym; I don’t have momentum. I hate it. It sucks. I have to change. I have to get a handle on this and dig myself out.

I’m not complaining. Don’t get me wrong. I’m sharing this state of mind here on this page, so that anybody who has read The War of Art and imagines that the guy who wrote the book has conquered Resistance (while he, the reader, is still struggling with it) will be disabused of such a silly notion and will not beat himself up over it. I’m as human as the next guy and I take the gaspipe too sometimes just like everyone else.

Working deep is the answer for me. To be happy, to feel good about myself, to not feel guilty about sucking up my share of oxygen on the planet. I have to get back to it.

Milestones

At least seven people were killed by a remote controlled bicycle bomb in the provincial capital of the southern province of Helmand, Lashkar Gah, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen called progress in the ongoing coalition offensive in Marjah "steady if perhaps a bit slower than anticipated," as the United States passed a deadly milestone as the 1,000th U.S. service member was killed in the Afghan war (AFP, Pajhwok, BBC, Reuters, BBC). Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, issued a nationally broadcast video, dubbed in Dari and Pashtu, apologizing for the air strike on Sunday that killed 27 Afghan civilians on the border between Uruzgan and Daykundi and was reportedly ordered by U.S. Special Operations forces (AP, LAT, Wash Post, NYT, AFP, WSJ, ISAF video).
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Yesterday's suicide attack outside Jalalabad in Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan reportedly killed Haji Zaman Ghamsharik, one of the Afghan warlords who allied with the United States during the battle of Tora Bora in December 2001 and was accused of helping Osama bin Laden escape (NYT, AJE, AP, TNR). And the Times and the Post have more information about last weekend's news that Afghan Taliban Quetta shura member Maulvi Abdul Kabir, a former Taliban governor of Nangarhar, was recently captured, and the arrest of the Taliban's shadow governor of Zabul province (NYT, Post). Pajhwok reports that several other "key" Taliban figures have been detained in Wardak, and that two civilians including a child were killed when a motorized rickshaw laden with explosives detonated in Nangarhar earlier today (Pajhwok, NYT, Pajhwok).

The fight goes on

The battle in Marjah continues into its tenth day as Afghans continue to flee the conflict zone for nearby cities like Lashkar Gah; yesterday, two battalions of U.S. Marines managed to link up to create a direct north-south route through the town for convoys and supplies (AP, Pajhwok, AP). The U.S. is reportedly planning to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to construct almost 200 police stations in Afghanistan (McClatchy). And the Taliban in Marjah had apparently recently loosened their grip over Afghans in the southern town, while NATO secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said yesterday at Georgetown University that he doesn't think a Dutch withdrawal from Uruzgan will cause other European nations to follow suit (USAT, WSJ, AFP).

Rajiv Chandrasekaran describes the newly appointed mayor of Marjah's first visit to the town yesterday, as Haji Zahir arrived escorted by U.S. Marine officers and a contingent of tribal elders and met with locals skeptical of the government in Kabul and concerned about the possible end of their lucrative poppy-growing business (Wash Post).

Power grab

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has taken control of the Afghan election watchdog that forced him into a runoff in last August's fraud-riddled presidential contest, giving himself the power to appoint all five members of the Electoral Complaints Commission, which previously had three U.N.-appointed foreign members (Guardian, Times, BBC). And outgoing top U.N. official in Afghanistan Kai Eide comments in today's Daily Telegraph that reconciliation plans with economic incentives for Taliban fighters will not succeed without negotiations with the movement's leadership (Tel, Tel).

Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt report that the National Counterterrorism Center, formed in 2004 in response to intelligence failures before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, is struggling because of "flawed staffing," culture clashes, and tension between the CIA and the State Department's counterterrorism desk (NYT).

Zazi pleads guilty

Najibullah Zazi, the Afghan-American accused of planning to detonate explosives in New York's subway system after receiving weapons training from al-Qaeda in Pakistan, yesterday pleaded guilty to terrorism charges in what appears to be part of a plea bargain for cooperating with investigators (FBI, AJE, AFP, Pajhwok, NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, Wash Post, BBC). Zazi faces a possible term of life in prison when he is sentenced on June 25 in the U.S. District Court in Brooklyn.

In Pakistan, a general visits and a minister quits

Top U.S. General David Petraeus arrived in Pakistan yesterday and met with Prime Minister Yousuf Razai Gilani and army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani to shore up ties between the U.S. and Pakistan, reportedly supporting Pakistan's demand for "early reimbursement" of U.S. funding for Pakistan's participation in the erstwhile "war on terror" (AFP). Earlier today, Pakistan's Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin resigned in order to focus on his private banking career without an apparent conflict of interest (AFP, The News).

The Times of London has an interesting interview with a top Pakistani intelligence officer who both escorted U.S. Congressman Charlie Wilson and then-CIA deputy director Robert Gates to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and at times worked with militant leaders Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Jalaluddin Haqqani, and Ahmed Shah Massoud (Times). And finally, a new message from al-Qaeda's number two Ayman al-Zawahiri has made its way to the public and rails against the Turkish government for its role in Afghanistan (CNN).

Going for gold

Pakistan's only Olympic athlete, Muhammad Abbas, is set to make his debut today in Vancouver, participating in the giant slalom race at Whistler Creek (Dawn). The event will be broadcast live on ESPN in Pakistan.

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Special invitation: Join the New America Foundation and Foreign Policy magazine this Thursday for a half-day conference on al-Qaeda Central's capabilities, allies, and messages. Details and RSVP here.

On the offensive

Earlier today, a NATO air strike killed at least 27 Afghan civilians in central Afghanistan, after the aircraft fired on what was mistakenly believed to be a group of militants en route to attack a joint NATO-Afghan convoy; additionally, a suicide bomber has killed around 15 people in the eastern province of Nangahar, reportedly including a former police chief and a tribal leader (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, ISAF; AP, Pajhwok). The incidents are unrelated to the ongoing coalition offensive in Marjah, for which Afghan President Hamid Karzai castigated NATO forces on Saturday over civilian deaths in only his second public pronouncement about Operation Moshatarak (WSJ, AP). Civilians in and around Marjah have been expressing their frustrations, including running out of food and water, with U.S. Marines in shuras, and Michael Phillips profiles an example of concern about civilian casualties slowing a potential air strike (NYT, WSJ, Independent, WSJ, AJE, LAT).
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Taliban militants in Marjah have continued to put up "tough fighting" in what CENTCOM commander Gen. David Petraeus yesterday on Meet the Press referred to as the "initial salvo" of a 12 to 18 month campaign (NYT, AP, MTP). As many as 600 Afghan police officers have been dispatched to Marjah to help "hold" the cleared areas of the southern Afghan town, which NATO officials believe will take at least 30 days to secure (AFP, BBC, WSJ). The Air Force has carried out 14 drone strikes near Marjah in recent days, and the number of the unmanned aerial vehicles for surveillance and bombing missions has quietly doubled in Afghanistan in the last year; the Los Angeles Times has a must-read about drone pilots in the first in its occasional series about remote-controlled warfare (NYT, LAT).

While war correspondent C. J. Chivers issued a fairly scathing review of the Afghan National Army's performance this far in the Marjah campaign, writing that although its "soldiers have shown courage and a willingness to fight," the heavy lifting thus far has been done by U.S. Marines "in the presence of fledgling Afghan Army units, whose officers and soldiers follow behind the Americans and do what they are told," Dexter Filkins sees a "couple of large reasons" to believe the coalition has regained the battlefield momentum (NYT, NYT). Tactics in the battle for Marjah, it seems, are similar to "old-fashioned" campaigns: "on foot, with rifle," and the military is upping its intelligence efforts in the country (Wash Post, Wash Post).

In more analysis of the post-battle period of the Marjah offensive, Rajiv Chandrasekaran assesses the prospects for establishing local governance after the operations are over, highlighting the tension between installing the newly appointed district governor, a man who doesn't come from Marjah and spent the last 15 years in Germany, and was selected as a friend of the current governor of Helmand, and Abdul Rahman Jan, a brutal narcotics-linked former police chief who is considered the "man with the most sway" in the area (Wash Post). Officials and analysts have said that neighboring Kandahar province, a Taliban stronghold, may be next for the coalition, while Thom Shanker considers the somewhat unusual measures that came before the start of this offensive: opinion polling of what local residents wanted (Wash Post, Times, NYT).

General criticism

Veteran reporter Jonathan Landay takes a very critical look at top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen. Stanley McChrystal's role in keeping a few remote U.S. bases in the country open in spite of warnings from his field commanders that they were "vulnerable and had no tactical or strategic value," and were later attacked causing the deaths of U.S. soldiers (McClatchy). And the U.S. military's support for a former Afghan warlord affiliated with Hizb-e-Islami who is taking control of the eastern district of Kamdesh in Nuristan province is causing friction with the State Department, which is concerned that the alliance may be a temporary step toward establishing a "personal fiefdom" in the mountainous border area (AFP).

The first European administration to fall because of the war in Afghanistan, the Dutch government collapsed on Saturday when the two main political parties failed to reach a consensus after 16 hours of meetings about whether Dutch troops will be withdrawn from the restive Uruzgan province in August this year as planned, after a NATO request to extend the Dutch tours (Reuters, Guardian, AJE, BBC, AP). The Dutch prime minister commented on Sunday, "If nothing else will take its place, then it ends," and analysts are concerned not only about the immediate impact on local security, but the 'domino effect' if other NATO countries rethink their commitments in Afghanistan (AP, NYT).

The Washington Post takes a fascinating look at the close and questionable ties between Afghanistan's biggest private bank, Kabul Bank, and President Karzai's family, members of whom have reportedly been given multimillion dollar loans for the purchase of "luxury villas in Dubai" (Wash Post). The bank's founder and chairman commented, "What I'm doing is not proper, not exactly what I should do. But this is Afghanistan."

Bombings and interrogations in Pakistan

A suspected suicide car bombing targeting Pakistani security forces in the main town of Mingora in the Swat Valley killed around six people earlier this morning, in an area that has been declared largely cleared of Taliban militants (Geo, Reuters, AFP, BBC, AJE, Dawn, CP, AFP). Pakistani police were also attacked in two coordinated strikes in nearby towns in Mansehra district, 90 miles northwest of Islamabad, on Saturday, as Pakistani forces hammered the militant-ridden tribal area of South Waziristan, killing as many as 30 insurgents (AP, Dawn, Daily Times, CNN, BBC, Reuters).

Last Thursday's suspected U.S. drone strike in North Waziristan that reportedly killed the brother of a prominent Afghan insurgent leader, Siraj Haqqani, apparently targeted the militants as they left the funeral of an Egyptian-Canadian al-Qaeda linked leader who had been killed the previous day in another drone attack (Dawn, AP). Sheikh Mansoor reportedly traveled back and forth often between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and was believed to be the son of another significant militant who was killed in 2004.

And the recently captured second-in-command of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Baradar, reportedly provided the intelligence that led Pakistani authorities to arrest of one of the top ten most wanted Taliban leaders, Maulvi Kabir, a former Taliban governor of Afghanistan's Nangahar province (Fox, AFP). The CIA is reportedly trying to get Baradar moved to Bagram Air Base north of Kabul, as the insurgent commander is not talking enough (LAT). Pakistani authorities have been leading his interrogation, and might object to turning him over to U.S. interrogators who could ask him about the relationships between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan's intelligence services, the ISI. Kabul has been noticeably silent on Baradar's capture (Pajhwok).

Tour de Pakistan

The 15th Tour de Pakistan, a bicycling race modeled on the Tour de France, is set to kick off next month with nearly 80 cyclists competing over 11 stages in the first two weeks of March (AFP). The course runs from Peshawar to Karachi, a distance of more than 1,000 miles.

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